An introduction to the field

For a comprehensive introduction to the field of mass atrocity prevention, the book Fundamentals of Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention by Scott Straus is an extremely useful place to start. It is published by the US Holocaust Memorial Museum. Best of all, it is free to download.

A key policy document is the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes published by the UN Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect. The Framework is an important reference point in the policy field of mass atrocity prevention, both in terms of assessing risks and outlining prevention strategies.

Key UN documents and essential references in the atrocity prevention field include the Report of the United Nations Secretary-General ‘Implementing the Responsibility to Protect’ (2009) where the three pillar structure of R2P is presented, and the adoption of the World Summit Outcome by the UN General Assembly in 2005, which adopted the R2P doctrine.

To predict and prevent atrocities it is necessary to understand the many potential motivations and succession of events that can lead to their perpetration. This can be done through risk assessment (RA) and early warning (EW) mechanisms, as explained in the policy brief Mass atrocity prevention: An overview of risk assessment and early warning.

Risk assessment projects such as Peoples Under Threat carry out mapping surveys and research to do precisely this, focusing on state levels and structural conditions. These risk assessment approaches are used to gives an overall picture of risk, without precisely addressing when or if mass violence will erupt.

Early-warning mechanisms such as Populations at Risk by the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GlobalR2P) instead focus on monitoring situations of high risk and insecurity. Early warning approaches monitor the escalation of violence or discrimination as well as indicators conducive to atrocities, and so they can predict atrocities in a more dynamic and short-term way.